Will there soon be an agreement to end Haiti's 19-month "electoral crisis"? That was the question raised by last Friday's visit to Haiti of César Gaviria, secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS) . 

Gaviria stayed in Haiti only a few hours on Nov. 30 but managed to meet with President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, representatives of the multi-party opposition front, the diplomatic corps, and the church hierarchy. "We came to say to the government, to the opposition, to civil society and to the church, how concerned we are and how necessary it is to conclude an agreement without delay," said Gaviria, adding that he had delivered no ultimatums.

After repeatedly failing to broker a deal, Gaviria was invited back to Port-au-Prince this time by Aristide, who finds himself in dire political straits. The OAS left Haiti last October after long-stalled talks between Aristide's Lavalas Family party (FL) and the Washington-inflated Democratic Convergence opposition front (CD) broke down after only two days (see Haïti Progrès, Vol. 19 No. 32, 10/24/01).

This time, however, Aristide must have handed Gaviria his sword. The OAS secretary general announced before leaving that his number two, Luigi Einaudi, who arrives in Haiti Dec. 5, will hammer out the fine-points of some kind of deal. Einaudi would not be dispatched to Haiti lightly, having participated in close to 20 failed mediation missions. Now, Gaviria seemed so confident of Einaudi's success that he predicted a settlement before the end of December.

Originally, Gaviria's visit was "exploratory," according to an OAS spokesman. Aristide wanted to discuss with him how to reestablish normal relations between Haiti and international funders, who, under Washington's lead, have blocked aid to Haiti until the dispute between the FL and CD over last year's municipal and legislative elections is resolved.

FL leaders believe that the sanctions should have been lifted long ago due to the many concessions they have already made, including: 1) the resignation of seven senators following questions of whether they won in the first round; 2) term reductions for senators elected May 21, 2000; 3) two-year term reduction for many deputies; 4) the reholding of the legislative elections in Nov. 2002; 5) the formation of a new provisional electoral council (CEP). "Following all these concessions, the President wrote to [the OAS] asking that relations with the international financing institutions be normalized," said Information Minister Guy Paul. "It was clearly said during the [OAS] meeting in Costa Rica [last June] that when these steps were taken, they would begin to regularize the economic situation with Haiti. But up until now, this has not been done." Paul accused the OAS, through its laxity, of being responsible for the lack of progress in negotiations.

Meanwhile, the CD claimed to want to return to the negotiating table, but hedged, saying it didn't know if it could due to government "repression" against its militants. Their excuse: a Nov. 29 demonstration in St. Marc where one person was killed and several others wounded when pro-CD demonstrators clashed with pro-FL ones. The CD gave Gaviria a list of alleged human rights violations against its partisans around the country.

"We spent an hour discussing the negotiations and the violations of human rights, of journalists' rights, of the rights of the opposition, of the rights of the civil society which today the Lavalas is trampling." said Micha Gaillard, a CD leader.

Some Convergence leaders seemed a little put out by the idea of returning to negotiations, apparently feeling that their real goal -- the overthrow of Aristide -- might soon be accomplished by capitalizing on and fanning the flames of recent large demonstrations against the FL's corruption, extravagance, and broken promises. "I don't have much hope that the Lavalas will show itself to be reasonable or sufficiently wise to obtain a compromise with us on the basis of a political accord," said another CD leader, Paul Denis. "So, while we are negotiating, we will continue our work of mobilization."

However, the Haitian masses are not enamored of the CD's "mobilization" either. For example, last week the front attempted to organize a general strike in the southern city of Cayes. Despite large media backing, the action was a failure.

The "electoral crisis," which the OAS today proposes to solve, is an artificial crisis, completely created by Washington and its allies in the OAS and Europe. All the electoral missions observing the May 2000 elections, including that of the OAS, had declared them to be "free and fair." One week later, when an FL sweep was apparent, the OAS challenged how the CEP calculated first-round victories in seven Senate races. Instead of denouncing the OAS's meddling in a domain where the CEP was supreme judge, the FL began to bargain with the Haitian people's vote and today has bargained it practically all away.

Will we now see the unconditional surrender of Aristide? The only thing which he has not yet conceded is the 7,000-odd posts held by mayors and "territorial collectivities," a collection of town and rural councils. "Other than the five-year term of the president, everything else is negotiable," Ben Dupuy of the National Popular Party (PPN) archly remarked. The PPN had repeatedly warned Aristide of the slippery slope he was heading down when he bowed to foreign pressure and accepted to "negotiate" the outcome of last year's elections, violating the principles of national sovereignty, vote inviolability, and Constitutional process.

Now the FL faces multiple crises. National and international outcry is growing over government obstruction of the judicial investigation of the May 3, 2000 assassination of progressive radio journalist Jean Dominique and his employee Jean-Claude Louissaint. The aid cut-off, official corruption, and FL wastefulness has brought about unprecedented misery, which is crumbling away the FL popular base. Street demonstrations are calling for the resignation of prime minister Jean-Marie Chérestal, and sometimes even that of Aristide himself, an unthinkable call just three months ago. 

Perhaps Aristide now thinks it prudent to give some ground once again in an attempt to calm things down. In his usual metaphoric language, he said in a recent radio statement that he would prefer "to lose a point that to be knocked out." This is likely why he summoned Gaviria. The FL seems ready to completely capitulate.

But such an agreement between the FL and the CD will only accelerate the deeper structural crisis which Aristide was originally elected in 1990 to redress with a democratic nationalist program. Today, under the goading of the OAS and Washington, the FL and CD are vying to be the chosen agents of just the opposite: neoliberal reform and political reconciliation. These are the very policies which have deepened economic crisis and political injustice in Haiti and against which the Haitian people once thought Aristide would fight.